What is the three-question test for causality?

What is the three-question test for causality?

• A. 1 Did it start/sustain sequence? 2 Would prevention occur without it? 3 Would human behavior likely differ?
• B. 1 Is it possible? 2 Is it probable? 3 Is it verifiable?
• C. 1 Did the event occur? 2 Was there evidence? 3 Is there a rule?
• D. 1 Is there a direct link? 2 Is there a contributing factor? 3 Is there a chain of events?

Answer: (A)

Causality in safety analysis is evaluated through counterfactual reasoning about whether a factor is essential to the outcome. The three-question approach asks: did the factor start or sustain the sequence of events that led to the incident? If it did not influence the chain at all, it’s unlikely to be causal. Would preventing the incident have occurred without this factor? If removing it would have prevented the outcome, the factor plays a causal role; if the incident would occur anyway, its causal status is weaker. Would human behavior likely differ because of this factor? If people’s actions would have been different, that indicates the factor helped drive the incident by altering behavior. Taken together, these questions directly address whether a factor is a necessary and influential part of the causal chain. The other options wander into whether something is merely possible, probable, or verifiable, or into the existence of a link or the type of link, which do not provide the practical test of causality in the same way.

Causality in safety analysis is evaluated through counterfactual reasoning about whether a factor is essential to the outcome. The three-question approach asks: did the factor start or sustain the sequence of events that led to the incident? If it did not influence the chain at all, it’s unlikely to be causal. Would preventing the incident have occurred without this factor? If removing it would have prevented the outcome, the factor plays a causal role; if the incident would occur anyway, its causal status is weaker. Would human behavior likely differ because of this factor? If people’s actions would have been different, that indicates the factor helped drive the incident by altering behavior. Taken together, these questions directly address whether a factor is a necessary and influential part of the causal chain. The other options wander into whether something is merely possible, probable, or verifiable, or into the existence of a link or the type of link, which do not provide the practical test of causality in the same way.